Economists have presented a balanced review of President Bola Tinubu’s proposed 2026 national budget, identifying several promising elements alongside significant weaknesses that could affect its effectiveness if not addressed.
On the positive side, economic experts commend the budget’s strong focus on infrastructure development, fiscal discipline, and revenue expansion. They note that increased allocations to roads, power, rail transport, and housing reflect an intention to stimulate economic growth, attract private investment, and create jobs. The emphasis on boosting non-oil revenue through improved tax administration and diversification is also viewed as a step toward reducing the country’s long-standing dependence on crude oil earnings.
Analysts further acknowledge efforts to strengthen social intervention programmes, particularly in education, healthcare, and social welfare. They argue that targeted spending in these areas could help cushion the effects of inflation on vulnerable citizens and improve human capital development over time. The budget’s attempt to align spending with broader economic reforms, including subsidy rationalisation and monetary coordination, has also been described as a move in the right direction.
However, economists have raised serious concerns about the proposal’s weaknesses. Chief among them is the size of the budget deficit and the heavy reliance on borrowing to fund it. Experts warn that continued deficit financing could worsen the nation’s debt burden and increase pressure on future budgets if revenue projections fall short. They also question the realism of some revenue assumptions, suggesting that overly optimistic targets may not be achievable under current economic conditions.
Another major concern is the impact of inflation and exchange rate volatility on budget implementation. Economists caution that rising prices could erode the real value of capital allocations, while currency instability may inflate the cost of imported goods and projects. Some analysts also argue that recurrent expenditure remains too high compared to capital spending, limiting the budget’s ability to drive sustainable growth.
Additionally, concerns have been expressed about transparency and accountability, with calls for stronger monitoring mechanisms to ensure funds are properly utilised. Economists stress that without effective implementation, even well-designed budget provisions may fail to deliver meaningful results.
Overall, experts agree that while the 2026 budget contains commendable initiatives aimed at economic recovery and growth, its success will depend on realistic revenue generation, disciplined spending, reduced borrowing, and consistent policy execution. They urge the government to address the highlighted weaknesses to ensure the budget achieves its intended impact on the economy and citizens.